International Security & Foreign Policy

The First Battle of the Next War: War-Gaming a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

Grant Year: 2021


Mark Cancian, Eric Heginbotham, and Matthew Cancian will lead an effort to identify and understand the most important military variables that would shape the outcome of a U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan. They will develop and execute a series of war games that would test the effects of variables including surprise, extended bombardment, and U.S. innovation or stagnation over the long term against a base case assessment of China’s ability to invade Taiwan. The project’s findings will appear in a report.

Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security & Foreign Policy

$193,600