Keith Payne will lead an effort to identify how the United States can best strengthen its nuclear posture in the current strategic environment. The project will convene a study group to analyze changes in the threat environment; draw out the implications of those developments for plans and programs to modernize nuclear forces and infrastructure, declaratory policies and force postures, and arms control measures; and make recommendations for policymakers. The project’s findings will be presented in a report and related articles.
Matthew Costlow will assess the likelihood of coordinated aggression by some combination of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, and develop conventional and nuclear deterrence strategies to mitigate that risk. The project’s findings will appear in a report.
Mark Schneider will research and write a monograph assessing China’s strategic nuclear capabilities. Drawing on open-source information, he will critically examine existing estimates of China’s nuclear arsenal and develop an alternative estimate of Chinese weapons platforms, weapons systems, delivery vehicles, and warheads.
Michaela Dodge and Keith Payne will develop an intellectual road map for reinforcing U.S. nuclear guarantees to its allies in the face of increasing capabilities of and threats by nuclear and suspected nuclear adversaries. They will analyze declassified and open-source material and conduct interviews with policymakers and experts in allied countries. The project’s findings will be presented in a report.
Mark Schneider will assess the challenges in estimating Russia’s nuclear stockpile, critique the most-widely-used publicly available estimates, and provide revised estimate ranges for Russia’s strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons. The project’s findings will be published in a report.
Keith Payne will lead an effort to explore how the United States should revisit its strategic deterrence capabilities in the new era of great power competition. He will undertake research and analysis on the evolving strategic force postures and polices of Russia, China, and the United States; conduct interviews and convene a study team with experts and officials of allies and partners; and identify dissonance between contemporary threat realities and U.S. deterrence capabilities and guidelines. The project’s findings will appear in a monograph and a series of articles and briefings.
Matthew Costlow will assess a variety of factors that may deter an adversary from escalating a conventional conflict to either limited or general nuclear war. He will undertake a literature review across governmental and nongovernmental writings on intra-conflict deterrence, interview civilian and military experts, and engage with senior reviewers who will provide feedback throughout the project. The project’s findings will appear in a report.
Steven Lambakis will research and write a monograph that explores how the United States may better deploy space-based sensors in support of missile defense, space defense, and other missions.